2023 is a crucial year to predict the next future of the supply chain.
As 2022 has been a time of recovery from the pandemic issues, 2023 represents the year of “settlement” for the shipping industry, even if new challenges are on the way. The coming months will show us the true scenario with some differences between air and sea freight.
According to the latest IATA report, in 2022, air cargo shipments accounted for a good share of income for airlines worldwide: out of $727 billion in overall revenue, $201.4 came from this industry. This year, instead, there will be a downturn and air freight revenues will stop at $149.4 billion: we are talking about a loss of more than 50% year-on-year.
But this scenario is not as alarming as we might think, for at least two reasons:
–Although air freight is now at a loss, its performances are higher than the
pre-pandemic ones: in 2019 the same industry reached $100.8 billion in revenues compared to $201.4 billion in 2022.
-Airlines will return to positive balance sheets in 2023, with global profits estimated at $4.7 billion.
For sea freight, things are different.
The number of available vessels will increase in 2023, making sea freight more resilience. In addition, according to the Sea-Intelligence report, the congestion in the maritime industry in 2022 has been partially overcomed, and we expect to go back to historical standards in 2023.
Where do all these forecasts come from?
Above all, the intra-Asian trade ascent: Asia is the great economic and geopolitical player in the decade in which we live, with no exception for 2023. It is not a coincidence that many companies have opened new offices here, excluding China.
We expect Intra-Asian trade will drive global trade in 2023.
While the global economy is in recession, the consumers’ demand may decrease, impacting on shipments too.
This difficult economic situation gets more worrying with international tension and political uncertanties. Last but not least, climate change causes serious problems to air and sea shipments, leading to delays and congestion.
It is clear that 2023 is not going to be easy: the shipping industry has just got out of the pandemic, and other obstacles are on the horizon. But even taking all this into account, recent reports reassure us that we are in a period of growth.